As the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, our study of past municipal defaults helps shed light on what we can expect going forward. We will discuss historical default trends between 1970-2019, year-to-date 2020 performance, and what we expect going forward as the effects of the pandemic linger. We will also touch on recent developments for Puerto Rico credits.

Topics include: 
  • Recent developments: no defaults in 2019 but two so far in 2020
  • No defaults directly attributable to virus shutdowns but longer term cultural changes merging as potential credit drivers; still no natural disaster defaults
  • Recent credit trends (non-debt leverage, fixed costs, etc.) continue; economic growth counters these trends, bolsters "shutdown resilience"
  • Operational fundamentals drive defaults, not legal pledge; pledge important in recovery
  • Recent developments in Puerto Rico
  • Naomi Richman, Senior Vice President (Moderator)
  • Al Medioli, Senior Vice President/Mgr/RPO
  • Sarah Jensen, AVP-Analyst/RPO
  • Genevieve Nolan, VP-Senior Analyst

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